Real Estate

The typical home buyer’s monthly mortgage payment rose 39%, the largest year-over-year gain on record as the average 30-year-fixed rate hovered at a 12-year high of 5.1%. That’s according to a new report from Redfin, a technology-powered real estate brokerage. Redfin’s data on home buyer mortgage payments is based on asking-price data going back to 2015.

“Rising mortgage rates are taking a bite out of pending sales as both buyers and sellers take a step back from the turbulent market,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “It seems as though the ratio of buyers to sellers remains mostly the same, which is why we have yet to see a substantial drop in bidding wars or the share of homes selling quickly. It’s still early days though when it comes to 5% mortgage rates. The number of buyers willing to pay such high mortgage payments could evaporate by late summer.”

Pending home sales posted their largest year-over-year decrease since mid-February and mortgage purchase applications fell 17%. On the supply side, new listings fell 4%, and the share of listings with price drops rose to its highest level since November.

Leading indicators of home buying activity:

  • Fewer people searched for “homes for sale” on Google. Searches during the week ending April 23 were down 6% from a year earlier.
  • The seasonally-adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was flat year over year during the week ending April 24. It dropped 8% in the past four weeks, compared with a 3% decrease during the same period a year earlier.
  • Touring activity from the first week of January through April 24 was 19 percentage points behind the same period in 2021, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
  • Mortgage purchase applications were down 17% from a year earlier, while the seasonally-adjusted index decreased 8% week over week during the week ending April 22.
  • For the week ending April 28, 30-year mortgage rates hovered at 5.1%. This was down just slightly from 5.11% the prior week—the highest level since April 2010.

Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:

This data covers the four-week period ending April 24. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015.

  • The median home sale price was up 17% year over year—the biggest increase since August—to a record $395,600.
  • The median asking price of newly listed homes increased 16% year over year to $404,950, a new all-time high.
  • The monthly mortgage payment on the median asking price for a home rose to a record high of $2,349 at the current 5.1% mortgage rate. This was up 39% from $1,685 a year earlier, when mortgage rates were 2.98%.
  • Pending home sales were down 3% year over year, the largest decrease since mid-February.
  • New listings of homes for sale were down 4% from a year earlier, and have turned in annual declines since mid-March.
  • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 19% year over year.
  • 57% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, up from 54% a year earlier, down less than a percentage point from the record high during the four-week period ending April 3.
  • 43% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, up from 41% a year earlier, down less than a percentage point from the record high during the four-week period ending April 17.
  • Homes that sold were on the market for a record low median of 16 days, down from 22 days a year earlier.
  • A record 55% of homes sold above list price, up from 45% a year earlier.
  • On average, 3.5% of homes for sale each week had a price drop. Overall, 14% dropped their price in the past four weeks, up from 11% a month earlier and 9% a year ago. This was the highest share since the end of November.

The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, rose to an all-time high of 102.7%. In other words, the average home sold for 2.7% above its asking price. This was up from 101% a year earlier.

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